October 19, 2025 - October Surprise 2024 - octobersurprise-2024.org

Putin’s strategy is to drive the wedge between Trump and Europe.
AI Overview
Multiple analysts and reports indicate that a core part of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s strategy is to exploit and widen the divide between President Donald Trump and European allies. This strategy is pursued through various diplomatic and hybrid warfare tactics. [1, 2, 3, 4, 5]
Russia’s strategic goals • Weaken NATO: By fostering division, Putin aims to undermine the unity and effectiveness of NATO, which he perceives as a strategic threat. Russian leaders recognize that a fragmented alliance is less capable of responding decisively to Russian aggression.
• Reduce support for Ukraine: Russia’s goal is to diminish military and financial support for Ukraine from the US and Europe. Tactics include exploiting political disagreements over funding and military aid to pressure Ukraine into a settlement on Moscow’s terms.
• Restore “great power” status: By pushing back against the Western-led order and re-establishing a sphere of influence in its neighborhood, Russia hopes to regain geopolitical influence lost after the Cold War. [2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8]

Tactics to create division • Hybrid warfare: Russia’s tactics include sabotage, cyber-attacks, GPS jamming, and disinformation campaigns to foster insecurity and exploit vulnerabilities in Europe.
• Diplomatic maneuvering: Russia has used diplomatic efforts, such as the 2025 summits with Trump, to project an image of Russia and the US bypassing European partners in peace negotiations. Hosting a meeting with Trump in Budapest, a location favored by a pro-Kremlin leader, is viewed as a strategic move to undercut Europe’s influence.
• Friendly relations with Trump: Putin cultivates a friendly relationship with Trump, who has a history of criticizing European allies and NATO. During his previous term, Trump openly embraced Putin and questioned the need for alliances, which aligned with Russian interests. During the Alaska and Budapest summits in 2025, Putin and Trump have discussed Russian proposals for a peace deal in Ukraine.
• Encouraging pro-Russian figures: The Kremlin has aligned with far-right parties and leaders in Europe who share its anti-democratic and anti-EU views. This provides a mechanism for destabilizing the EU from within. [1, 4, 6, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16]

Trump’s impact on US-Europe relations • “America First” policy: Trump’s focus on “America First” and a transactional view of foreign policy has strained the transatlantic relationship. European leaders and publics have expressed dismay over US policy shifts and a perceived indifference or hostility toward their interests.
• Skepticism of European allies: Trump’s rhetoric has challenged foundational European institutions and alliances, including criticizing the EU as an economic foe and questioning NATO’s purpose.
• Undermining Ukraine support: Trump’s questioning of US aid to Ukraine and willingness to engage in separate talks with Putin have created anxiety among European allies about the future of a united front against Russian aggression. [1, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21]

European response • Adapting to US shifts: Faced with a less reliable US, European leaders are increasingly considering how to achieve greater strategic independence. Some countries are taking steps to build up their own defense capabilities.
• Continuing support for Ukraine: Despite concerns over waning US commitment, many European countries have reaffirmed their support for Ukraine.
• Resilience against Russian influence: European leaders are taking steps to counter Russian hybrid attacks and strengthen security, though the challenges persist. [4, 6, 8, 16, 22, 23]

AI responses may include mistakes.

[1] bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
[2] carnegieendowment.org/emissa…
[3] atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth…
[4] csis.org/analysis/russias-sh…
[5] understandingwar.org/researc…
[6] atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/uk…
[7] sciencespo.fr/ceri/en/conten…
[8] bbc.com/news/articles/c4gz2p…
[9] bloomberg.com/news/newslette…
[10] atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/uk…
[11] theguardian.com/commentisfre…
[12] apnews.com/article/trump-put…
[13] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_R…
[14] axios.com/2025/10/16/trump-p…
[15] washingtonpost.com/politics/…
[16] nytimes.com/2025/02/27/world…
[17] features.csis.org/responses-…
[18] csis.org/analysis/transatlan…
[19] reuters.com/world/europe/tru…
[20] government.cornell.edu/news/…
[21] politico.eu/article/donald-t…
[22] theatlantic.com/national-sec…
[23] aljazeera.com/news/2025/10/1…

Putin’s strategy is to drive the wedge between Trump and Europe. – Google Search google.com/search?q=Putin%27…

— Michael Novakhov (@mikenov) Oct 19, 2025

All That Jazz

The CONNECTION

“This colt is gray.”

Chekhov’s Gun, also in Intelligence Operations

Pavel Durov

Bing: Pavel Durov