October Surprise 2024 - octobersurprise-2024.orgDuring Putin’s visit to Beijing in May, his top priority was securing a deal for the Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline. But Chinese officials reportedly told the Russian delegation they would only agree if Russia sold gas at the same below-market price charged to domestic consumers and instructed them not to bring up the pipeline again until Moscow changed its terms.
Putin left China after signing 42 agreements and joint declarations, but without the pipeline deal Russia badly needs.
A report by the WSJ says China has become indispensable to Russia by purchasing discounted Russian oil, supplying key components for its defense industry, and helping Moscow mitigate Western sanctions. China now accounts for nearly 40% of Russia’s foreign trade and about one-third of Russia’s export revenues, while Russia makes up less than 4% of China’s foreign trade.
According to the report, Beijing is deliberately delaying the pipeline negotiations in the expectation that Russia’s economic position will weaken further, allowing China to secure even more favorable terms.
The Wall Street Journal also reports that Xi has used China’s growing leverage to extract concessions from Moscow, including persuading Russia to accept the Chinese yuan as the primary currency for a planned Shanghai Cooperation Organization development bank after Moscow had resisted the move for more than a decade.
The report concludes that although the two countries continue to project an image of a close strategic partnership, the underlying relationship has shifted decisively in China’s favor, with Russia now far more dependent on Beijing than China is on Moscow.
— @visegrad24 Jul 21, 2026