Category: Michael Novakhov – SharedNewsLinks℠

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he wants Ukraine’s proposal to end the war ready to be presented to the Russian government by the end of this year.

On June 16, during the Swiss Peace Formula Summit, the Ukrainian president stated that the next and final summit with his allies should be held in “months, not years”.

This second meeting should produce a document which will be then presented to Moscow and President Vladimir Putin by the so-called “third countries” on behalf of Kyiv. 

But who would those third countries be? And what is Russia’s stance on Zelenskyy’s peace formula? 

‘Russia’s long-term goal is to disband Western unity’

The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Kremlin officials are likely trying to shape international peace mediation efforts in the war in Ukraine while demonstrating Russia’s unwillingness to engage in good-faith negotiations with Kyiv.

Moscow repeatedly stated that Russia has never seriously considered the plan, calling Zelenskyy’s peace formula an “ultimatum”.

Yet, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attended the Russia–Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Joint Ministerial Meeting of Strategic Dialogue in Saudi Arabia on 9 September, likely as part of the Kremlin’s efforts to advance the creation of its envisioned “Eurasian security architecture”.

The ISW previously assessed that Moscow’s proposal of Eurasian security architecture is consistent with Russia’s long-term strategic goal of disbanding Western unity, disbanding NATO from within, and destroying the current world order.

In Saudi Arabia, Lavrov met with his counterparts from Brazil and India, countries often mentioned as those who could play an important part in ending the war in Ukraine. 

Global North vs Global South?

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 has emphasised the division between the so-called Global North and Global South. 

The Global North states—the term usually used to describe the world’s most developed nations—have all been staunch supporters of Ukraine. The US, UK, and EU have all displayed their solid commitment to weapons and equipment supplies, financial aid, and, in general, their political support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.

This is why they are not the leading candidates to mediate any possible talks. Not because they don’t want to or because Ukraine doesn’t want it, but because most of them are now in a complex, open conflict with Russia. Moscow has even included them on its “unfriendly countries list”. 

This is why any possible mediation or passing of the peace formula paper could hypothetically be trusted with the so-called Global South. 

Many of the Asian, African, Middle Eastern and Latin American states didn’t condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine since the first days of the all-out war, and this is what made them priorities for Zelenskyy and his diplomatic team.

For many years, these countries had been somehow pushed into Russia’s area of interest. And now their position and diplomatic weight is more significant than ever.

Who are the possible key players? 

India: When Russia launched a barrage of missiles across Ukraine on 8 July and destroyed the largest children’s hospital in Kyiv, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was visiting Moscow.

As the photos emerged of cancer-stricken children being evacuated and receiving their vital treatment in the dusty street among the rescue operations at Ohmatdyt in Kyiv, Moscow released pictures of Modi shaking hands with Putin. 

The timing of his Moscow visit didn’t go unnoticed in Kyiv, and when Modi arrived in the Ukrainian capital a few weeks later for his historic visit, he joined Zelenskyy in commemorating hundreds of Ukrainian children who have been killed during more than two years of war.

Modi, who told Zelenskyy that the killing of children in conflict was not acceptable, said he had come to Ukraine with a message of peace. He stated his respect for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but overall Modi’s peace rhetoric was largely unchanged from the message he had delivered weeks earlier in Moscow as he reiterated that the conflict can be resolved only through dialogue and diplomacy. 

Middle East: specifically Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. Saudi Arabia hosted an international summit on the peace formula in August of last year.

The country has also played an important role in negotiating prisoner exchanges with Russia, allowing Ukraine to achieve a major exchange involving nearly 300 people in September 2022, including the high-profile commanding officers who defended the Azovstal plant in Mariupol.

UAE also succeeded in meditating an exchange of POW’s when Kyiv and Moscow each returned 90 prisoners of war. 

Qatar mediated one of the most tragic and most complicated issues amid the full-scale invasion — the forced deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia. Russia has forcefully deported over 19,000 children from Ukraine. Fewer than 400 have been returned. 

Don’t look too far

When Zelenskyy visited Italy last week for the Ambrosetti Forum, his office said Ukraine’s president planned to meet with Italian authorities and representatives of Italian businesses. 

It is unclear whether he met Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev who also attended the forum in Cernobbio and delivered a speech titled “Azerbaijan’s role in the new geopolitical environment”. 

The Russian invasion of Ukraine arguably made Azerbaijan more important than ever to the Western partners, as Europe needs both the country’s energy resources and its transit routes.

Aliyev said that Baku was “approached by Russia, Ukraine and European institutions in order to facilitate the continuation of the gas transit through Ukraine.”

Aliyev made a surprising statement by announcing for the first time that Azerbaijan is now getting involved in helping to look for a solution to end the war in Ukraine as his country has strong positive relations and the trust of both Ukraine and Russia.

The Azerbaijan president said, “We have certain optimism because in recent contexts with both countries, we think there is ground for a breakthrough. Probably, it may be premature for me to go into too much detail, but if it works, then we may be able to do other things in order to help put an end to this war, which is destroying the whole region.” 

He also emphasised that Azerbaijan “strongly supports Ukraine’s and all countries’ territorial integrity and sovereignty,” which has been the country’s position since the beginning of the war, while in parallel, Azerbaijan continues to have strong relations with Russia.

Two weeks before Aliyev’s participation in  the Ambrosetti Forum alongside Zelenskyy, he welcomed Putin in Baku. 

Unimaginable peace opens the door to ending war in Ukraine

For decades, Moscow has considered Azerbaijan and Armenia to be in its sphere of influence. But this long-standing status quo was shattered when Azerbaijan retook control of the Karabakh region in a lightning offensive in September 2023 while Russia was bogged down in Ukraine, triggering a major political reshape of the region.

A traditional ally and partner of Moscow, Armenia saw the historic departure of Russian border guards from its Zvartnots Airport this summer, 32 years after their deployment began. 

The Russian Foreign Ministry said the move was causing “irreparable damage” to relations between the two countries. But this damage appeared to be even more significant and evolving as Armenia blamed Russia for its defeat in Karabakh region.

A month later, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan announced that Yerevan had suspended its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) — Russia’s answer to the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, which includes Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Instead, to Russia’s dismay, Armenia has started improving relations with the West. European Commission Vice President and EU Commissioner for Promoting the European Way of Life Margaritis Schinas visited Yerevan on 9 September as the EU and Yerevan launched a dialogue on visa liberalisation for Armenia.

On X, formerly known as Twitter, Schinas said his visit marked the “recent successes in the partnership’ and specifically mentioned ‘security support’ as one of the key aspects of it, stating that ‘The EU stands shoulder to shoulder with Armenia.”

Yerevan and Baku have been negotiating a groundbreaking and regionally stabilising peace treaty after decades of war over Karabakh region and Ukraine issued a statement in April, welcoming the agreements between the two countries on finding solutions to the interstate border. 

The Ukrainian ministry stressed that the delimitation of the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia based on respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity “is a necessary condition for normalising relations between the countries and ensuring stability and security in the region.

Aliyev’s surprise announcement last week on seeking solutions and signalling an involvement in the peace negotiations as an intermediary between Russia and Ukraine, while negotiating its own peace with Armenia, would further reshape the balance of powers and stability in the whole region and beyond. 

As the once unimaginable peace is now looming between Azerbaijan and Armenia, this historic moment in the Caucasus could also hold the right pieces and keys to the difficult solution for ending the war in Ukraine. 

On Aug. 23, French authorities arrested Pavel Durov, the founder and CEO of Telegram, at Le Bourget Airport near Paris. This unexpected event has sent ripples through the tech industry and raised significant questions about the intersection of digital privacy, state power and global geopolitics.

According to French officials, Durov was arrested on a warrant issued by France’s L’office mineurs, an agency responsible for preventing violence against minors. The charges against him include allegations of failing to curb the use of Telegram for criminal activities such as cyberbullying, drug trafficking, organized crime and the promotion of extremism. Telegram, with its encrypted messaging services, has been a platform of choice for various actors, including those involved in illicit activities, which French authorities argue Durov has not adequately addressed. 

The geopolitical implications of Durov’s detention cannot be overlooked. Telegram has been a critical tool in several global hotspots, most notably the Ukraine conflict, where it has been used by both military units and civilians for communication and information dissemination. Russia’s immediate response, demanding consular access and criticizing French authorities, underscores the international tensions at play.

Durov, who holds multiple citizenships, including Russian, has long been a thorn in the side of the Russian government due to his refusal to comply with demands for user data from his platform. His detention in a NATO member state like France could be interpreted as part of broader Western efforts to counter Russian influence, particularly in the digital realm. 

Speculation also abounds regarding possible involvement of other intelligence agencies, including Israel’s, given its sophisticated cyber capabilities and interest in monitoring or controlling platforms like Telegram, which both allies and adversaries might find useful. Any involvement by Israel, whether through intelligence sharing or cyber operations, would add further complexity to the geopolitical landscape surrounding Durov’s detention. 

Durov’s decision to travel to France despite the risks involved also raises questions. Some speculate that it may have been a calculated risk, possibly linked to broader negotiations or a belief that he could resolve legal issues there. The situation is further complicated by the mysterious disappearance of 24-year-old Yuli Vavilova, a Dubai-based crypto-coach from Moscow who was with Durov at the time of his detention. Speculation is rampant, with theories ranging from her involvement in espionage to the possibility of a honey trap orchestrated by intelligence agencies, adding layers of intrigue to the unfolding events. 

Durov’s detention comes amidst increasing pressure from European regulators on tech companies to comply with the Digital Services Act, which demands stringent content moderation to prevent the misuse of platforms for illegal purposes. France’s actions suggest a hard-line approach to enforcing these regulations, particularly against companies perceived as not fully cooperating with European standards. 

This event serves as a stark reminder of the delicate balance between public safety and individual freedoms, particularly the right to privacy. Telegram is known for its strong encryption and for Durov’s commitment to protecting user data from government intrusion, making it a vital tool for activists, journalists and everyday users who value privacy. But it has also attracted criminals and extremists, who exploit its secure communication features.  

One significant concern arising from this situation is the potential for the French government to gain access to Telegram’s databases. Although Telegram is designed to be highly secure, with servers distributed across multiple jurisdictions, Durov’s detention could lead to increased pressure on the company to comply with data access requests.

If French authorities gain access to user data, it could impact millions of users worldwide, particularly those involved in sensitive communications, such as political activists, journalists and government officials who rely on Telegram’s encryption for secure messaging. 

This case raises broader concerns about the future of digital privacy and freedom. If governments can hold tech executives personally responsible for their platforms’ users, it may lead to increased self-censorship by companies or even a decline in the availability of secure communication tools. This could have a chilling effect on free speech, especially in authoritarian regimes where platforms like Telegram are essential for organizing dissent.

For the tech industry, this incident signals a new era of accountability, in which CEOs and founders could face legal consequences for their platforms’ failures to comply with local laws. This is particularly significant for companies operating across multiple jurisdictions with varying legal standards. The pressure to adhere to stringent regulations may stifle innovation, especially in sectors like encryption and cybersecurity, where the balance between security and oversight is inherently delicate. 

Durov’s detention bears significant similarities to the 2018 apprehension of Meng Wanzhou, the CFO of Huawei, in Canada. Both cases involve high-profile tech industry figures whose detentions have sparked international controversies and raised questions about the motivations behind them. Meng’s detention was widely viewed as part of the U.S.-China trade war, with Huawei at the center of concerns over 5G technology and cybersecurity. Likewise, Durov’s situation can be seen within the context of global power struggles, particularly between Russia and the West, and the role of technology in modern warfare and statecraft. 

Both cases illustrate how technology and geopolitics are increasingly intertwined. Meng’s detention had far-reaching consequences for Huawei and China’s global tech ambitions, just as Durov’s could impact Telegram’s operations and the broader tech landscape, especially concerning encrypted communications.

Just as Meng’s case symbolized the escalating tech rivalry between the U.S. and China, Durov’s detention could mark a key moment in the ongoing struggle over digital sovereignty and the future of the internet. 

Pari Esfandiari is the co-founder and president at the Global TechnoPolitics Forum, a member of the at-large advisory committee at ICANN representing the European region, and a member of APCO Worldwide’s advisory board.

New York City’s police commissioner stepped down Thursday amid separate federal corruption investigations targeting Mayor Eric Adams and his top aides.

Edward Caban, the first Latino to run the New York Police Department, was asked to resign on Monday, the New York Times and other outlets reported.

In an email to the officers he led, Caban wrote that “the news around recent developments has created a distraction for our department, and I am unwilling to let my attention be on anything other than our important work, or the safety of the men and women of the NYPD.”

“I hold immense respect and gratitude for the brave officers who serve this department, and the NYPD deserves someone who can solely focus on protecting and serving New York City, which is why – for the good of this city and this department – I have made the difficult decision to resign as Police Commissioner,” he said.

More:Feds raid homes of NYC mayor’s top aides, including the city’s police commissioner

Adams named a retired FBI veteran, Tom Donlon, as interim police commissioner. Donlon formerly led New York state’s homeland security office and was chief of the FBI’s National Threat Center.

“This is the first police commissioner to resign over a corruption probe since the 1970s,” Wilbur Chapman, a former New York deputy police commissioner, told USA TODAY. “It creates a challenge for the police rank and file to restore the confidence of the people they protect.”

On Sept. 5, investigators from the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan seized Caban’s mobile phones as part of an investigation of what local media reported was possible protection of local nightclubs from enforcement actions. The electronic devices of lower level police commanders and supervisors were also seized.

Caban is among several top Adams aides and confidantes who received federal search warrants earlier this month. They include Deputy Mayor for Criminal Justice Philip Banks III, First Deputy Mayor Sheena Wright, and Schools Chancellor David Banks.

More:NYC Mayor Eric Adams baptized by the Rev. Al Sharpton at Rikers Island

Philip Banks, a former top police official, was named as an unindicted co-conspirator in an earlier bribery scandal at the NYPD. David Banks, the city’s schools’ chief, is his brother, and Wright is David Banks’ live-in partner. Investigators also seized the devices of a third Banks brother, Terrence Banks, who runs a government consultancy, and of Timothy Pearson, a retired police inspector who is a close confidant of the mayor’s.

“Based on what I have seen, I do not believe that Mr. Banks has any criminal liability − period,” said Benjamin Brafman, a lawyer for Philip Banks. An attorney for Terrence Banks didn’t immediately return a call for comment.

In an interview with WNYC, Schools Chancellor David Banks acknowledged that federal agents had searched the home he shares with Deputy Mayor Wright. “I have been told by my lawyers that I’m absolutely not a target in this investigation,” he told host Brian Lehrer, “and I’m going to do everthing I can to cooperate with the investigation.”

No one in the mayor’s circle has been charged with wrongdoing.

Earlier this year, investigators seized the mayor’s electronic devices, apparently in the course of an ongoing investigation of illegal Turkish funding for his 2021 mayoral campaign.

Caban was first appointed in July 2023 following the resignation of his predecessor, Keechant Sewell, who served 18 months before leaving the department.

In a statement, acting Police Commissioner Donlan said he would work to “continue the historic progress decreasing crime and removing illegal guns from our communities, uphold the highest standards of integrity and transparency, and support our dedicated officers who put their lives on the line every day to keep us safe.”

The detention of Telegram founder Pavel Durov forced him to start cooperating with the French security forces and provide them with information that can help identify suspected users of his messenger. This is reported by the newspaper Libération.

According to the publication, until recently Pavel Durov’s company ignored requests from French law enforcement agencies, but now Telegram has changed its strategy and started “unprecedented cooperation” on all requests.

Telegram has responded to requests from the Office of Juvenile Affairs (Ofmin) of the French National Police and Gendarmerie during several criminal investigations, providing data that can identify suspects. In particular, we are talking about crimes against children.

“The door is really opening,” Joanna Brousse, head of the J3 cybercrime department of the Paris Prosecutor’s Office, confirmed to Libération.

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According to the newspaper, it is recommended that all French security forces resume investigations that were suspended due to the inability to obtain information from Telegram.

As EADaily reported, Durov was detained on August 24 at Le Bourget airport when he got off his private plane. He was accused of deliberately not moderating illegal content in the messenger. The founder of Telegram was “shocked by the arrest,” since the messenger had a communication channel with the General Directorate of Internal Security of France (DGSI, counterintelligence), Libération wrote earlier, citing a source. The founder of the messenger is being interrogated in Paris said that he maintained contacts with its representatives, in particular, met with them in Dubai.

Earlier, Paris prosecutor Laura Becky stated on RTL radio that Pavel Durov cooperates with the French judicial authorities and fully complies with the control conditions established after the charges were brought against him.

On September 6, Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said that Durov could, under certain conditions, transfer encryption keys to the French special services, although he did not want to do so.

The official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, noted that Russian diplomats in Paris were doing everything necessary in the situation with Durov’s detention, consular access was requested.

Recall that Durov holds passports of several countries, including France, Russia and the UAE.